Apple Inc. (AAPL): Persistent strength with calmer recent trading

not supported. Registered 2026-10-01.

The result did not improve on the baseline after the cost allowance in every period. Company studies also require positive median returns relative to the market after costs in all three periods. The annual comparison did not pass the 512-trial correction (adjusted p=1.0000).

Higher 182-calendar-day company returns minus the S&P 500 price return on identical dates; 0.4 percentage-point round-trip cost allowance. Non-overlapping windows; period-end windows excluded. Baseline: eligible dates in the same period, also measured relative to the market. Positive median market-relative returns after costs are also required in all three periods. Annual sign comparisons use a fixed 512-trial Bonferroni correction. Discovery before 2010, validation 2010–2017, confirmation 2018 through September 2026. Conditional association, not a risk-adjusted alpha estimate or an executable trading strategy. Historical selection remains exploratory; forward observations start after publication.

Open the evidence, sources and forward ledger

Conditions

• $14593.ret_365d:gt:20
• $14593.sma200_gap:gt:0
• $14593.vol21:lt:35

Research history

• 2026-10-01T03:19:43.139Z — The conditions match the available data for 2026-09-30.
• 2026-10-01T03:19:43.087Z — The result did not improve on the baseline after the cost allowance in every period.
• 2026-10-01T03:19:39.538Z — Investigation registered. Its conditions and test periods are fixed.