What follows S&P 500 more than 20% below its 1-year high; 10-year Treasury yield above 5?

insufficient. Registered 2026-10-01.

Too few non-overlapping observations in one or more periods. The result did not improve on the baseline after the cost allowance in every period. The annual comparison did not pass the 512-trial correction (adjusted p=1.0000).

Higher 91-calendar-day price returns; 0.2 percentage-point round-trip cost allowance. Non-overlapping windows; period-end windows excluded. Baseline: eligible dates in the same period. Annual sign comparisons use a fixed 512-trial Bonferroni correction. Discovery before 2010, validation 2010–2017, confirmation 2018 through September 2026. Conditional association, not a risk-adjusted alpha estimate or an executable trading strategy. Historical selection remains exploratory; forward observations start after publication.

Open the evidence, sources and forward ledger

Conditions

• 10y.value:gt:5
• spx.dd_365:lt:-20

Research history

• 2026-10-01T02:05:39.405Z — The conditions are not matching as of 2026-09-30.
• 2026-10-01T02:05:39.354Z — Too few non-overlapping observations in one or more periods.
• 2026-10-01T02:05:08.544Z — Investigation registered. Its conditions and test periods are fixed.